22 games to decide fates of 16 college football teams - part 4

Image
  • 22 games to decide fates of 16 college football teams - part 4
  • 22 games to decide fates of 16 college football teams - part 4
  • 22 games to decide fates of 16 college football teams - part 4
  • 22 games to decide fates of 16 college football teams - part 4
Body

This year’s college football season will come down to one question — Will teams play the 2020 season due to COVID-19?

For the sake of this column, let’s say they do.

No matter any touchdown and field goal and extra point scored, the season and four College Football Playoff (CFP) positions come down to 22 games.

The entire season hinges on 16 teams — Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana State, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, Southern California and Texas.

The first games to really pay attention to begin September 12.

This column will feature key December games and the possibilities for the CFP.

December 5 — Oklahoma v. Texas in Arlington, Texas

Like I said earlier, this Oklahoma/Texas matchup will be bigger than the October meeting. There is more on the line, especially if the winner of the first one is Texas. That would mean both schools are 11-1 going into this one with the Big 12 Championship on the line. The rematch would be the game of the year possibly.

December 5 — Oregon v. Utah in Las Vegas

This game, if it happens, is a rematch of last year’s Pacific 12 Championship Game. It also would be only Utah’s second game that matters. The scenario is bigger for the Utes if they’re undefeated going into this one. If Southern California beats them in October, that could be enough to knock Utah out of the CFP, even if the Utes win this one.

December 5 — Alabama v. Florida in Atlanta

Very simple, if both are undefeated, or even if both have a loss, the winner this game will be in the CFP. Alabama has been in the CFP every year except for last year. Florida hasn’t been in one yet and hasn’t played for a National Championship since 2008. It could be a very good game.

Worst case scenario

OK, now the fun part. What were to happen if every contender lost at least one game. Well, that could happen this season.

For this to work, we have to go back to the first of the season. Washington beats Michigan. Virginia Tech beats Penn State. Then, Texas beats Louisiana State. Then Ohio State beats Oregon. Georgia beats Alabama. Utah beats Southern California. Penn State beats Michigan. Texas beats Oklahoma in October. Georgia beats Auburn. Louisiana State beats Florida. Penn State beats Ohio State. Florida beats Georgia. Notre Dame beats Clemson. Southern California beats Oregon. Alabama beats Louisiana State. Louisiana State beats Auburn. Michigan beats Ohio State. Southern California beats Notre Dame. Auburn beats Alabama. Oklahoma beats Texas. Oregon beats Utah. Auburn beats Florida. In this scenario, Auburn would have beaten Alabama to win the SEC West. If all that happened, here’s what it would look like:

1-loss teams

Texas lost to Oklahoma at a neutral site in the Big 12 Championship Game. Finished with one loss, but no conference championship.

Ohio State lost to Michigan in November. Finished with one loss, but no conference championship, if they lose the three-way tiebreaker to Penn State or Michigan. For this column, let’s say they do.

Oregon lost at home to Southern California in November. Finished with one loss, but no conference championship.

Georgia lost to Florida at a neutral site in October. Finished with one loss, but no conference championship.

Southern California lost to Utah in October. Finished with one loss, but no conference championship.

Oklahoma lost to Texas at a neutral site in October. Won the Big 12.

Clemson lost at Notre Dame in November. Won the Atlantic Coast.

Notre Dame lost to Southern California in November. Finished with one loss, but no conference championship.

Utah lost to Oregon at a neutral site in the Pacific 12 Championship Game. Finished with one loss, but no conference championship.

Then the question would be, does a two-loss Auburn who won the Southeastern Conference trump a one-loss team who didn’t win their conference. In this scenario, a bad loss at Virginia Tech for Penn State wouldn’t hurt them

In this scenario, a bad loss at Virginia Tech for Penn State wouldn’t hurt them too much if they won the Big Ten. Penn State is in.

A one-loss Oklahoma team, who avenges its only loss by giving that same team its only loss and winning the conference championship puts them in. Oklahoma is in. A one-loss Clemson team wins the Atlantic Coast and its loss at Notre Dame

A one-loss Clemson team wins the Atlantic Coast and its loss at Notre Dame isn’t as bad as Penn State’s. Clemson is in.

A one-loss Oregon team, wins the Pacific 12, but doesn’t get to avenge an earlier loss. Is Oregon in?

If they are, then that means they get in ahead of a two-loss team that beat them head-to-head.

Also in this scenario, a one-loss Georgia team doesn’t get in. The Bulldogs only loss would have been to Florida at a neutral site.

Let the controversy begin.

What likely will happen?

OK, now that we’ve looked at chaos, here’s what probably happens.

Alabama/Florida winner is in.

Clemson/Notre Dame winner is in.

Oregon/Ohio State winner is in.

Then, the fourth spot. Is it an Oklahoma/Texas winner with only one loss? Is the loser of Alabama/Florida in? Is the loser of Clemson/Notre Dame in? Is a one-loss Michigan or Penn State in? Is a one-loss Utah in? Hmm. Let the games, fingers crossed we have college football, begin.